One of my first jobs in my career was working for a large public utility in southern Indiana. One of the old hands that I worked with told me a story about an occasion when he disconnected the service, for non-payment, of a woman that he was pretty sure worked as a lady of the evening. He told me that after he cut her service off, she stormed into his office to complain about the disconnection. When he told her that her service would not be restored until she paid the bill and a deposit, she proceeded to remove her high heel shoe and beat him with the stiletto. In fact, she worked him over pretty good and sent him to the hospital.

Last Wednesday, while watching Carly Fiorina field a question about Donald Trump’s insulting comment about electing her face, I got the opportunity to view the verbal equivalent of a beating with high heels as she decimated the blustery billionaire. Not to mix metaphors, but game, set and match to Carly Fiorina!

I won’t recite the highs and lows of the debate again, but I would like to give my view of where the Republican Presidential quest stands at this point in time. I’ll divide the candidates into three groups: Stick a fork in them, long shots and contenders.
First, those with a fork protruding from them or please open your mail so you get the memo:
Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore: If you can’t even qualify for the junior varsity debate, that’s a pretty clear signal that you are toast.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: A very smart man lacking in essential charisma. I believe his days are numbered.

Former Senator Rick Santorum: I can’t believe that Santorum seriously believes that he has a chance at this point. His slim opportunity was in 2012 against a far weaker field. Too many other candidates share his beliefs and his base. Game over.
Senator Lindsey Graham: He may hang around until the South Carolina primary, if for no reason other than having a chip in a potential poker game at the Republican National Convention. If he doesn’t win his state’s “third in the nation” primary, count him out. He’s currently on life support.
There’s a growing list of long shots who will probably fall to the wayside but who might conceivably catch on fire:

Governor Scott Walker: When I heard him speak at an Indiana Republican Party State Dinner I was surprised at how unexciting he was. I am no longer surprised. To gain traction as a candidate you must have a message that resonates with the voters and the ability to get their attention. Walker is barely registering a pulse at this time.

Senator Ted Cruz: Brilliant, dogmatic, combative and focused, Cruz lacks a critical likability factor. I sense no warmth in him and just can’t see the average voter willing to cozy up to him. He needs to learn to smile every once in a while. This presidential run may just be a trial run for a bid in 2020. He has the money to hang around for quite some time and can go deep into the primary season before crying “uncle.” He could inherit some of Jindal’s and Santorum’s support should they fold their tents.

Mike Huckabee: If you could blend Huckabee’s likability with Cruz’s brilliance, you might be able to work up a respectable candidacy. It’s hard not to like the former Arkansas governor. I met him at the Midwestern Republican Leadership Conference as we rode down the elevator together. I mentioned that I was meeting my wife in the lobby and he insisted on coming over to meet her. You can’t teach that skill. Unfortunately, Huckabee’s human relations skills get overridden by a message parroted by too many other candidates and a media bent on dragging his religious beliefs into every discussion. As a conservative client of mine told me last week, “I liked Huckabee until he supported the Kentucky county clerk. He lost me there.” He’ll be back on Fox News in time to cover some of the late-March primaries.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul: Although his libertarian beliefs are appealing on many issues to a large number of Republicans, he will always carry the baggage of a reluctance to use the military and the stigma of marijuana legalization. At this time of great challenges in confronting ISIS, North Korea and Russia, it appears voters are a little reluctant to embrace a candidate whose views come off as isolationist. I believe he’ll be done well before the Kentucky Senate Primary.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: He talked tough before Donald Trump entered the picture but the lingering controversy over Bridgegate and the emergence of Trump has sealed Christie’s fate. There are still a large number of Republicans who won’t forgive the “Obama hug.” New Hampshire will probably be his swan song. Christie’s future may well rest in the Attorney General’s office.

Pediatric Neuro Surgeon Ben Carson: Mr. Carson is very smart, personable and popular with a chunk of Republican and Tea Party voters. Lack of governmental experience is both his weakness and his strength. It is obvious to me that he needs to do some serious study work on government policy, legislation and procedures. His low key demeanor turns on some supporters and turns off others. He is the polite outsider in the race. A lack of funds will severely limit his ability to get his message out during the critical month of March. Carson will most likely run the distance fueled by his army of true believers. As the field shrinks due to attrition, I see his support remaining relatively constant. He too could pick up a chip for the Republican National Convention poker game should a brokered convention occur.

This leaves us with the five candidates who I believe are the most serious contenders for the Republican nomination:

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush: Experienced, smart and well-financed. He should be dominating the primary field. His biggest stumbling block is serving as the apologist, defender and explainer-in-chief for his brother, former President George W. Bush. Many Republicans that I talk with greatly respect Jeb Bush but just don’t want to go through the media assault of “Oh no, not another Bush!” However, his huge campaign war chest and bevy of talented political experts bodes well for his long-term chances. He’s in it to win it.

Ohio Governor John Kasich: The man is razor sharp, forceful and quick on his feet. He is compassionate and has a winning message of working together to make our country great. He will most likely get stronger as the months unfold. His weakness is that the typical Republican primary voter may view him as a moderate, the political kiss of death. He should be able to finance a run to the finish.

Billionaire Donald Trump: He has the outsider image and the slick, easy message of throw the politicians out and “I’ll hire the best people to make America great!” This message always draws a big early crowd of supporters but generally fades when a lack of details kills the buzz. Usually the money fades with the poll numbers and the candidate makes a March exit. However, Trump has the money to fight it out to the finish and take it to the convention. While I just can’t see Trump winning the nomination, I could see him causing a brokered convention. Then, as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright might say, “The chickens will come home to roost.” Trump’s verbal abuse will come back to haunt him.

Carly Fiorina: I’m not sure this dynamo can be kept off of the Republican ticket. She has proven to be tireless, inspirational and crystal clear with her message. She is a great speaker, a superb debater and certainly counters the old “war on women” attack. Time will tell if she can go the distance but if she fails to get the Presidential nomination, she will be on everyone’s short list for Vice-President.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio: This guy is the real deal. He gets it. He is eloquent, has a great message of living the American Dream, brings a needed demographic element to the Republican Party and demonstrates an amazing depth of knowledge. He might just be the guy to electrify both the Republican base and the vast number of young, ethnic and independent voters. He has the funds to survive and will go all the way to the convention. If he fails to grasp the brass ring, he’ll also be on everyone’s short list, except Bush’s, for Vice-President.

If I had to handicap the contenders today, I would rank their chances as follows: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich and Donald Trump. Of course, this is how the contents of the Republican field looks to me today, but shifts in popularity can change on a whim. Just as my box of Wheaties cereal says, “Contents of box may settle during shipping.” Shift happens!